Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.344471 0.392139 0.443899 0.504261 0.572718 0.647937 0.736860
2025-09-14 0.263346 0.323939 0.394833 0.483861 0.592663 0.721306 0.885006
2025-09-21 0.210888 0.278270 0.362614 0.475861 0.623907 0.810887 1.065108
2025-09-28 0.170395 0.239970 0.332686 0.465126 0.649393 0.896719 1.254146
2025-10-05 0.147411 0.220514 0.323740 0.479882 0.709982 1.036631 1.535970
2025-10-12 0.124728 0.197447 0.305856 0.478869 0.747902 1.150330 1.798590
2025-10-19 0.108039 0.180343 0.293746 0.484032 0.795146 1.283775 2.110254
2025-10-26 0.095884 0.168223 0.287213 0.496477 0.855066 1.444514 2.488009
2025-11-02 0.080801 0.148644 0.265411 0.480146 0.864884 1.525241 2.745865
2025-11-09 0.067212 0.129355 0.241019 0.455274 0.855745 1.571847 2.950804
2025-11-16 0.058111 0.116719 0.226410 0.445492 0.871665 1.663726 3.248894
2025-11-23 0.050442 0.105531 0.212722 0.435154 0.884614 1.751201 3.550259
2025-11-30 0.045662 0.099556 0.208623 0.443866 0.937815 1.926114 4.055057
2025-12-07 0.039064 0.088706 0.193127 0.427082 0.937209 1.995669 4.359906
2025-12-14 0.034375 0.081179 0.183366 0.420850 0.957800 2.111507 4.779739
2025-12-21 0.030149 0.073960 0.173131 0.411927 0.971138 2.213947 5.186572
2025-12-28 0.028066 0.071377 0.172826 0.425445 1.036996 2.440171 5.904643
2026-01-04 0.025315 0.066697 0.166927 0.424849 1.069845 2.596608 6.484957
2026-01-11 0.023205 0.063263 0.163473 0.429656 1.116478 2.791798 7.187836
2026-01-18 0.021657 0.061022 0.162622 0.440879 1.180856 3.038787 8.056183
2026-01-25 0.019061 0.055503 0.152525 0.426466 1.177153 3.116909 8.506998
2026-02-01 0.016473 0.049543 0.140321 0.404417 1.149767 3.130780 8.791811
2026-02-08 0.014743 0.045742 0.133375 0.395766 1.157577 3.237890 9.344630